Assessing Military and Non-Military Incidents at Sea in the Asia-Pacific

Safety at sea and in the airspace above it has gained new prominence in Asian security. The contested waterways of East Asia have become increasingly saturated with naval and non-naval vessels such as coastguards and fishing fleets raising concerns about the potential for unplanned encounters and military-to-military incidents. There are also concerns about the use of risky, unsafe and provocative manoeuvres by aircraft and naval vessels especially by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which is also the world’s fastest growing naval power. In 2022, representatives of the Biden administration in the United States accused the PRC of increasing ‘provocations’ against Southeast Asian claimants in the South China Sea (SCS), saying ‘its “aggressive and irresponsible behaviour” meant it was only a matter of time before a major incident or accident’ occurred. They pointed to “a clear and upward trend of PRC provocations against South China Sea claimants and other states lawfully operating in the region.” While these dynamics raise serious concerns regarding the ability of ‘good order at sea’ – the safe, stable and predictable use of the seas and oceans – there are also concerns that an unplanned encounter might escalate into great power conflict.