Trajectory of knee health in runners with and without heightened osteoarthritis risk: the TRAIL prospective cohort study protocol.

Introduction Running is one of the most popular recreational activities worldwide, due to its low cost and accessibility. However, little is known about the impact of running on knee joint health in runners with and without a history of knee surgery. The primary aim of this longitudinal cohort study is to compare knee joint structural features on MRI and knee symptoms at baseline and 4-year follow-up in runners with and without a history of knee surgery. Secondary aims are to explore the relationships between training load exposures (volume and/or intensity) and changes in knee joint structure and symptoms over 4 years; explore the relationship between baseline running biomechanics, and changes in knee joint structure and symptoms over 4 years. In addition, we will explore whether additional variables confound, modify or mediate these associations, including sex, baseline lower-limb functional performance, knee muscle strength, psychological and sociodemographic factors. Methods and analysis A convenience sample of at least 200 runners (sex/gender balanced) with (n=100) and without (n=100) a history of knee surgery will be recruited. Primary outcomes will be knee joint health (MRI) and knee symptoms (baseline; 4 years). Exposure variables for secondary outcomes include training load exposure, obtained daily throughout the study from wearable devices and three-dimensional running biomechanics (baseline). Additional variables include lower limb functional performance, knee extensor and flexor muscle strength, biomarkers, psychological and sociodemographic factors (baseline). Knowledge and beliefs about osteoarthritis will be obtained through predefined questions and semi-structured interviews with a subset of participants. Multivariable logistic and linear regression models, adjusting for potential confounding factors, will explore changes in knee joint structural features and symptoms, and the influence of potential modifiers and mediators. Ethics and dissemination Approved by the La Trobe University Ethics Committee (HEC-19524). Findings will be disseminated to stakeholders, peer-review journals and conferences.