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Traffic Congestion and Safety: Mixed Effects on Total and Fatal Crashes

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posted on 2024-11-11, 07:00 authored by Duc C Phan, Long TruongLong Truong
This paper examines the effects of traffic congestion on total crashes, fatal or serious injury (FSI) crashes, and fatal-only crashes in peak periods using a zone-level safety analysis in Greater Melbourne. Bayesian mixed-effect negative binomial models are employed to investigate the relationship between a congestion index and the frequency of total and FSI crashes. In addition, Bayesian mixed-effect binary logistic models are adopted to explore the association between the congestion index and the likelihood of having fatal crashes in Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) zones. Modelling results indicate that traffic congestion tends to increase total crashes in both the AM and PM peak periods and FSI crashes in the AM peak period. In contrast, traffic congestion tends to decrease the likelihood of having fatal crashes at both the AM and PM peaks. These findings suggest that many policies to reduce traffic congestion may also enhance road safety by lowering the overall number of crashes. However, it is crucial to incorporate careful speed management within these policies to reduce the risk of fatal crashes effectively.

Funding

The research was funded by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts (Road Safety Innovation Fund).

History

Publication Date

2024-10-15

Journal

Sustainability

Volume

16

Issue

20

Article Number

8911

Pagination

11p.

Publisher

MDPI

ISSN

2071-1050

Rights Statement

© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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