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Optimising an integrated pest-management strategy for a spatially structured population of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) using meta-population modelling

journal contribution
posted on 2023-04-03, 18:35 authored by Paul Brown, Dean Gilligan

MDFRC item.

To evaluate strategies within a carp-control plan, we developed a meta-population model of the geographic arrangement, biological connections and ‘unfished’ stock structure of the pest population of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in a large river catchment. The model was tuned to recent observations of biomass. Published data were used to estimate sampling biases and yield from available carp-control tools. We simulated proposed carp-removal activities and also the potential effects of biological-control options; cyprinid herpesvirus-3 (CHV-3) and daughterless-carp gene technology. Outputs compared the population abundance before carp control (before 2009) and after a 70-year period of sustained management. Models suggest that the proposed levels of carp removal may reduce biomass by 50%. Although substantial, this control level may not be sufficient to reduce carp biomass densities below thresholds associated with ecological damage. In contrast, a CHV-3 bio-control program has potential to reduce carp biomass densities to, or exceeding, target levels, if mortality rates exceed 30% and broad-scale outbreaks occur in at least 40% of years, despite the likely development of resistance. A synergistic bio-control program using CHV-3, followed by a gene technology-based sex-ratio distortion program, is potentially the most effective strategy for reducing carp biomass by over 90% in the long term.


Publication Date



Marine and Freshwater Research.






13 p. (p. 538–550.)


CSIRO Publishing.



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Available to MDFRC staff only.

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arrow migration 2023-03-15 20:45. Ref: f1b71f. IDs:['', 'latrobe:37546', '', 'URN:ISSN:1323-1650']

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