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New approach to Forecasting Agro-based statistical models

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journal contribution
posted on 21.11.2022, 02:22 authored by M Akram, Ishaq BhattiIshaq Bhatti, M Ashfaq, AA Khan

This paper uses various forecasting methods to forecast future crop production levels using time series data for four major crops in Pakistan: wheat, rice, cotton and pulses. These different forecasting methods are then assessed based on their out-of-sample forecast accuracies. We empirically compare three methods: BoxJenkins’ ARIMA, Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) and exponential smoothing. The best forecasting models are selected from each of the methods by applying them to various agricultural time series in order to demonstrate the usefulness of the models and the differences between them in an actual application. The forecasts obtained from the best selected exponential smoothing models are then compared with those obtained from the best selected classical Box-Jenkins ARIMA models and DLMs using various forecast accuracy measures. 

History

Publication Date

01/12/2016

Journal

Journal of Statistical Theory and Applications

Volume

15

Issue

4

Pagination

13p. (p. 387-399)

Publisher

Atlantis Press

ISSN

1538-7887

Rights Statement

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press. This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).