Modelling Role of Protective and Nonprotective HLA Allele Inducing Different HIV Infection Outcomes

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infects CD4+ cells and causes progressive immune function failure, and CD8+ cells lyse infected CD4+ cell via recognising peptide presented by human leukocyte antigens (HLA). Variations in HLA allele lead to observed different HIV infection outcomes. Within-host HIV dynamics involves virus replication within infected cells and lysing of infected cells by CD8+ cells, but how variations in HLA alleles determine different infection outcomes was far from clear. Here, we used mathematical modelling and parameter inference with a new analysis of published virus inhibition assay data to estimate CD8+ cell lysing efficiency, and found that lysing efficiency fall in the gap between low bound (0.1–0.2 day−1 (Elemans et al. in PLoS Comput Biol 8(2):e1002381, 2012)) and upper boundary (6.5–8.4 day−1 (Wick et al. in J Virol 79(21):13579–13586, 2005)). Our outcomes indicate that both lysing efficiency and viral inoculum size jointly determine observed different infection outcomes. Low lysing rate associated with non-protective HLA alleles leads to monostable viral kinetic to high viral titre and oscillatory viral kinetics. High lysing rate associated with protective HLA alleles leads monostable viral kinetic to low viral titre and bistable viral kinetics; at a specific interval of CD8+ cell counts, small viral inoculum sizes are inhibited but not large viral inoculum sizes remain infectious. Further, with CD8+ cell recruitment, HIV kinetics always exhibit oscillatory kinetics, but lysing rate is negatively correlated with range of CD8+ cell count. Our finding highlights role of HLA allele determining different infection outcomes, thereby providing a potential mechanistic explanation for observed good and bad HIV infection outcomes induced by protective HLA allele.