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Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

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posted on 2022-11-04, 01:35 authored by Alexander F Siegenfeld, Pratyush Kumar KolleparaPratyush Kumar Kollepara, Yaneer Bar-Yam
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models’ assumptions but less often justify their validity in the specific context in which they are being used. Our purpose is not to argue for specific alternatives or modifications to compartmental models, but rather to show how assumptions can constrain model outcomes to a narrow portion of the wide landscape of potential epidemic behaviors. This concrete examination of well-known models also serves to illustrate general principles of modeling that can be applied in other contexts.

History

Publication Date

2022-10-29

Journal

Complexity

Volume

2022

Article Number

3007864

Pagination

12p.

Publisher

Hindawi

ISSN

1076-2787

Rights Statement

© 2022 Alexander F. Siegenfeld et al.-is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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