Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

Cologna, Viktoria; Meiler, Simona; Kropf, Chahan M; Lüthi, Samuel; Mede, Niels G; Bresch, David N; Lecuona, Oscar; Berger, Sebastian; Besley, John; Brick, Cameron; Joubert, Marina; Maibach, Edward W; Mihelj, Sabina; Oreskes, Naomi; Schäfer, Mike S; van der Linden, Sander; Aziz, Nor Izzatina Abdul; Abdulsalam, Suleiman; Abu Shamsi, Nurulaini; Aczel, Balazs; Adinugroho, Indro; Alabrese, Eleonora; Aldoh, Alaa; Alfano, Mark; Ali, Innocent Mbulli; Alsobay, Mohammed; Alvarez, R Michael; Amollo, Tabitha; Ansah, Patrick; Apriliawati, Denisa; Azevedo, Flavio; Bajrami, Ani; Bardhan, Ronita; Bati, Keagile; Bertsou, Eri; Bhui, Rahul; Białobrzeska, Olga; Bilewicz, Michal; Bouguettaya, Ayoub; Breeden, Katherine; Bret, Amélie; Buchel, Ondrej; Alvarez, Pablo Cabrera; Cagnoli, Federica; Valdez, André Calero; Callaghan, Timothy; Cases, Rizza Kaye; Çoksan, Sami; Czarnek, Gabriela; Debnath, Ramit; Delouvée, Sylvain; Di Stefano, Lucia; Diaz-Catalàn, Celia; Doell, Kimberly C; Dohle, Simone; Douglas, Karen M; Dries, Charlotte; Dubrov, Dmitrii; Dzimińska, Malgorzata; Ecker, Ullrich KH; Elbaek, Christian T; Elsherif, Mahmoud; Enke, Benjamin; Facciani, Matthew; Fage-Butler, Antoinette; Faisal, Zaki; Fan, Xiaoli; Farhart, Christina; Feldhaus, Christoph; Ferreira, Marinus; Feuerriegel, Stefan; Fischer, Helen; Freundt, Jana; Friese, Malte; Gallyamova, Albina; Garrido-Vásquez, Patricia; Vásquez, Mauricio E Garrido; Genschow, Olivier; Ghasemi, Omid; Gkinopoulos, Theofilos; Gloor, Jamie L; Goddard, Ellen; Brambila, Claudia González; Gordon, Hazel; Grigoryev, Dmitry; Guenther, Lars; Haarstad, Håvard; Harari, Dana; Hensel, Przemysław; Hernández-Mondragón, Alma Cristal; Herziger, Atar; Huang, Guanxiong; Huff, Markus; Hurley, Mairéad; Ibadildin, Nygmet; Islam, Mohammad Tarikul; Jin, Tao; Jones, Charlotte A; Jungkunz, Sebastian; Jurgiel, Dominika; Kavassalis, Sarah; Kerr, John R; Kitsa, Mariana; Rábová, Tereza Klabíková; Klein, Olivier; Koh, Hoyoun; Koivula, Aki; Kojan, Lilian; Komyaginskaya, Elizaveta; König, Laura M; Koppel, Lina; Koren, Kochav; Kosachenko, Alexandra; Kotcher, John; Kranz, Laura S; Krishnan, Pradeep; Kristiansen, Silje; Krouwel, André; Kuppens, Toon; Lamm, Claus; Lantian, Anthony; Lazić, Aleksandra; Légal, Jean-Baptiste; Leviston, Zoe; Levy, Neil; Lindkvist, Amanda M; Lits, Grégoire; Löschel, Andreas; Ortega, Alberto López; Lopez-Villavicencio, Carlos; Lou, Nigel Mantou; Lucas, Chloe H; Lunz-Trujillo, Kristin; Marques, Mathew; Mayer, Sabrina J; McKay, Ryan; Milfont, Taciano L; Miller, Joanne M; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Monge-Rodríguez, Fredy; Motta, Matt; Muršič, Zarja; Namutebi, Jennifer; Newman, Eryn J; Nitschke, Jonas P; Ntui, Ntui-Njock Vincent; Nwogwugwu, Daniel; Ostermann, Thomas; Otterbring, Tobias; Pantazi, Myrto; Pärnamets, Philip; Saiani, Paolo Parra; Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola; Parzuchowski, Michal; Pavlov, Yuri G; Pearson, Adam R; Pennington, Charlotte R; Petkanopoulou, Katerina; Petrović, Marija B; Pisareva, Dinara; Ploszaj, Adam; Pronizius, Ekaterina; Pštross, Karolína; Pypno-Blajda, Katarzyna; Quiñones, Diwa Malaya A; Räsänen, Pekka; Rauchfleisch, Adrian; Rebitschek, Felix G; Rêgo, Gabriel; Reynolds, James P; Roche, Joseph; Röer, Jan Philipp; Ross, Robert M; Ruin, Isabelle; Santos, Osvaldo; Santos, Ricardo R; Schulreich, Stefan; Shuckburgh, Emily; Six, Johan; Solak, Nevin; Späth, Leonhard; Spruyt, Bram; Stanley, Samantha K; Strahm, Noel; Syropoulos, Stylianos; Szaszi, Barnabas; Szumowska, Ewa; Tanaka, Mikihito; Teran-Escobar, Claudia; Todorova, Boryana; Toko, Abdoul Kafid; Tokrri, Renata; Toribio-Florez, Daniel; Tsakiris, Manos; Tyrala, Michael; Uluğ, Özden Melis; Uzoma, Ijeoma Chinwe; van Noord, Jochem; Vilares, Iris; Vlasceanu, Madalina; von Bubnoff, Andreas; Warwas, Izabela; Weninger, Tim; Westfal, Mareike; Wojcik, Adrian Dominik; Xia, Ziqian; Xie, Jinliang; Zegler-Poleska, Ewa; Zenklusen, Amber

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4

Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world

journal contribution

posted on 2025-09-08, 01:12 authored by Viktoria Cologna, Simona Meiler, Chahan M Kropf, Samuel Lüthi, Niels G Mede, David N Bresch, Oscar Lecuona, Sebastian Berger, John Besley, Cameron Brick, Marina Joubert, Edward W Maibach, Sabina Mihelj, Naomi Oreskes, Mike S Schäfer, Sander van der Linden, Nor Izzatina Abdul Aziz, Suleiman Abdulsalam, Nurulaini Abu Shamsi, Balazs Aczel, Indro Adinugroho, Eleonora Alabrese, Alaa Aldoh, Mark Alfano, Innocent Mbulli Ali, Mohammed Alsobay, R Michael Alvarez, Tabitha Amollo, Patrick Ansah, Denisa Apriliawati, Flavio Azevedo, Ani Bajrami, Ronita Bardhan, Keagile Bati, Eri Bertsou, Rahul Bhui, Olga Białobrzeska, Michal Bilewicz, Ayoub Bouguettaya, Katherine Breeden, Amélie Bret, Ondrej Buchel, Pablo Cabrera Alvarez, Federica Cagnoli, André Calero Valdez, Timothy Callaghan, Rizza Kaye Cases, Sami Çoksan, Gabriela Czarnek, Ramit Debnath, Sylvain Delouvée, Lucia Di Stefano, Celia Diaz-Catalàn, Kimberly C Doell, Simone Dohle, Karen M Douglas, Charlotte Dries, Dmitrii Dubrov, Malgorzata Dzimińska, Ullrich KH Ecker, Christian T Elbaek, Mahmoud Elsherif, Benjamin Enke, Matthew Facciani, Antoinette Fage-Butler, Zaki Faisal, Xiaoli Fan, Christina Farhart, Christoph Feldhaus, Marinus Ferreira, Stefan Feuerriegel, Helen Fischer, Jana Freundt, Malte Friese, Albina Gallyamova, Patricia Garrido-Vásquez, Mauricio E Garrido Vásquez, Olivier Genschow, Omid Ghasemi, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Jamie L Gloor, Ellen Goddard, Claudia González Brambila, Hazel Gordon, Dmitry Grigoryev, Lars Guenther, Håvard Haarstad, Dana Harari, Przemysław Hensel, Alma Cristal Hernández-Mondragón, Atar Herziger, Guanxiong Huang, Markus Huff, Mairéad Hurley, Nygmet Ibadildin, Mohammad Tarikul Islam, Tao Jin, Charlotte A Jones, Sebastian Jungkunz, Dominika Jurgiel, Sarah Kavassalis, John R Kerr, Mariana Kitsa, Tereza Klabíková Rábová, Olivier Klein, Hoyoun Koh, Aki Koivula, Lilian Kojan, Elizaveta Komyaginskaya, Laura M König, Lina Koppel, Kochav Koren, Alexandra Kosachenko, John Kotcher, Laura S Kranz, Pradeep Krishnan, Silje Kristiansen, André Krouwel, Toon Kuppens, Claus Lamm, Anthony Lantian, Aleksandra Lazić, Jean-Baptiste Légal, Zoe Leviston, Neil Levy, Amanda M Lindkvist, Grégoire Lits, Andreas Löschel, Alberto López Ortega, Carlos Lopez-Villavicencio, Nigel Mantou Lou, Chloe H Lucas, Kristin Lunz-Trujillo, Mathew MarquesMathew Marques, Sabrina J Mayer, Ryan McKay, Taciano L Milfont, Joanne M Miller, Panagiotis Mitkidis, Fredy Monge-Rodríguez, Matt Motta, Zarja Muršič, Jennifer Namutebi, Eryn J Newman, Jonas P Nitschke, Ntui-Njock Vincent Ntui, Daniel Nwogwugwu, Thomas Ostermann, Tobias Otterbring, Myrto Pantazi, Philip Pärnamets, Paolo Parra Saiani, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Michal Parzuchowski, Yuri G Pavlov, Adam R Pearson, Charlotte R Pennington, Katerina Petkanopoulou, Marija B Petrović, Dinara Pisareva, Adam Ploszaj, Ekaterina Pronizius, Karolína Pštross, Katarzyna Pypno-Blajda, Diwa Malaya A Quiñones, Pekka Räsänen, Adrian Rauchfleisch, Felix G Rebitschek, Gabriel Rêgo, James P Reynolds, Joseph Roche, Jan Philipp Röer, Robert M Ross, Isabelle Ruin, Osvaldo Santos, Ricardo R Santos, Stefan Schulreich, Emily Shuckburgh, Johan Six, Nevin Solak, Leonhard Späth, Bram Spruyt, Samantha K Stanley, Noel Strahm, Stylianos Syropoulos, Barnabas Szaszi, Ewa Szumowska, Mikihito Tanaka, Claudia Teran-Escobar, Boryana Todorova, Abdoul Kafid Toko, Renata Tokrri, Daniel Toribio-Florez, Manos Tsakiris, Michael Tyrala, Özden Melis Uluğ, Ijeoma Chinwe Uzoma, Jochem van Noord, Iris Vilares, Madalina Vlasceanu, Andreas von Bubnoff, Izabela Warwas, Tim Weninger, Mareike Westfal, Adrian Dominik Wojcik, Ziqian Xia, Jinliang Xie, Ewa Zegler-Poleska, Amber Zenklusen

<p dir="ltr">Abstract: </p><p dir="ltr">Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.</p>

Funding

See article for author funding

History

Publication Date

2025-07-01

Journal

Nature Climate Change

Volume

15

Pagination

725–735 + 9p. Methods, References and Reporting Summary

Publisher

Springer

ISSN

1758-678X

Rights Statement

© The Authors 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.