La Trobe

Ethical dilemma arises from optimizing interventions for epidemics in heterogeneous populations

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posted on 2024-02-29, 01:11 authored by Pratyush Kumar KolleparaPratyush Kumar Kollepara, Rebecca ChisholmRebecca Chisholm, István Z Kiss, Joel MillerJoel Miller
Interventions to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, while succeeding in their goal, have economic and social costs associated with them. These limit the duration and intensity of the interventions. We study a class of interventions which reduce the reproduction number and find the optimal strength of the intervention which minimizes the final epidemic size for an immunity inducing infection. The intervention works by eliminating the overshoot part of an epidemic, and avoids a second wave of infections. We extend the framework by considering a heterogeneous population and find that the optimal intervention can pose an ethical dilemma for decision and policymakers. This ethical dilemma is shown to be analogous to the trolley problem. We apply this optimization strategy to real-world contact data and case fatality rates from three pandemics to underline the importance of this ethical dilemma in real-world scenarios.

Funding

This work was supported by a La Trobe University GraduateResearch Scholarship (LTGRS) and a La Trobe University Full FeeResearch Scholarship (LTUFFS) for P.K.K., and startup fundingfrom La Trobe University for J.C.M.

History

Publication Date

2024-02-07

Journal

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volume

21

Issue

211

Article Number

20230612

Pagination

9p.

Publisher

The Royal Society Publishing

ISSN

1742-5662

Rights Statement

© 2024 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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