La Trobe

Distribution Tails, Recession Risks and Macroeconomic Policies

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posted on 2025-03-20, 01:53 authored by Michal Franta, Jan LibichJan Libich

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 ignited significant reconsideration of financial and economic policies, spurring extensive research efforts to prevent future crises and cultivate a more stable and inclusive economic framework. Our research proposes a macro-financial empirical modelling framework that can assess various short-term and long-term macroeconomic risks through the examination of the tails of distributions of macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals many novel facts regarding higher moments of the US output growth distribution. It also implies new findings and policy recommendations related to the impact of financial (risk premia) as well as monetary policy shocks on downside macroeconomic risk.

History

Publication Date

2024-07-17

Journal

Scientia

Pagination

7p.

Publisher

Science Diffusion

ISSN

2470-2579

Rights Statement

© The Authors 2024. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 This article originally appeared in Scientia, a publication helping to connect science and society. The original article DOI is https://doi.org/10.33548/scientia89 and the original authors are Michal Franta, Czech National Bank, and Jan Libich, La Trobe University. For more interesting science news, visit: www.scientia.global

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