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Ardl as an elixir approach to cure for spurious regression in nonstationary time series

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journal contribution
posted on 2021-12-08, 06:44 authored by G Ghouse, SA Khan, AU Rehman, Ishaq BhattiIshaq Bhatti
In conventional Econometrics, the unit root and cointegration analysis are the only ways to circumvent the spurious regression which may arise from missing variable (lag values) rather than the nonstationarity process in time series data. We propose the Ghouse equation solution of autoregressive distributed lag mechanism which does not require additional work in unit root testing and bound testing. This advantage makes the proposed methodology more efficient compared to the existing cointegration procedures. The earlier tests weaken their position in comparison to it, as they had numerous linked testing procedures which further increase the size of the test and/or reduce the test power. The simplification of the Ghouse equation does not attain any such type of error, which makes it a more powerful test as compared to widely cited exiting testing methods in econometrics and statistics literature.

History

Publication Date

2021-11-01

Journal

Mathematics

Volume

9

Issue

22

Pagination

15p. (p. 1-15)

Publisher

MDPI

ISSN

2227-7390

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The Author reserves all moral rights over the deposited text and must be credited if any re-use occurs. Documents deposited in OPAL are the Open Access versions of outputs published elsewhere. Changes resulting from the publishing process may therefore not be reflected in this document. The final published version may be obtained via the publisher’s DOI. Please note that additional copyright and access restrictions may apply to the published version.

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