Applicability of Chronic Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Zinc Toxicity in Australian and New Zealand Freshwaters

Stauber, Jenny; Gadd, J; Price, GAV; Evans, A; Holland, Aleicia; Albert, A; Batley, GE; Binet, MT; Golding, LA; Hickey, C; Harford, A; Jolley, D; Koppel, D; McKnight, KS; Morais, LG; Ryan, A; Thompson, K; Van Genderen, E; Van Dam, RA; Warne, MSJ

doi:10.26181/24708243.v1

Applicability of Chronic Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Zinc Toxicity in Australian and New Zealand Freshwaters

journal contribution

posted on 2023-12-01, 04:02 authored by Jenny StauberJenny Stauber, J Gadd, GAV Price, A Evans, Aleicia HollandAleicia Holland, A Albert, GE Batley, MT Binet, LA Golding, C Hickey, A Harford, D Jolley, D Koppel, KS McKnight, LG Morais, A Ryan, K Thompson, E Van Genderen, RA Van Dam, MSJ Warne

Bioavailability models, for example, multiple linear regressions (MLRs) of water quality parameters, are increasingly being used to develop bioavailability-based water quality criteria for metals. However, models developed for the Northern Hemisphere cannot be adopted for Australia and New Zealand without first validating them against local species and local water chemistry characteristics. We investigated the applicability of zinc chronic bioavailability models to predict toxicity in a range of uncontaminated natural waters in Australia and New Zealand. Water chemistry data were compiled to guide a selection of waters with different zinc toxicity-modifying factors. Predicted toxicities using several bioavailability models were compared with observed chronic toxicities for the green alga Raphidocelis subcapitata and the native cladocerans Ceriodaphnia cf. dubia and Daphnia thomsoni. The most sensitive species to zinc in five New Zealand freshwaters was R. subcapitata (72-h growth rate), with toxicity ameliorated by high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) or low pH, and hardness having a minimal influence. Zinc toxicity to D. thomsoni (reproduction) was ameliorated by both high DOC and hardness in these same waters. No single trophic level–specific effect concentration, 10% (EC10) MLR was the best predictor of chronic toxicity to the cladocerans, and MLRs based on EC10 values both over- and under-predicted zinc toxicity. The EC50 MLRs better predicted toxicities to both the Australian and New Zealand cladocerans to within a factor of 2 of the observed toxicities in most waters. These findings suggest that existing MLRs may be useful for normalizing local ecotoxicity data to derive water quality criteria for Australia and New Zealand. The final choice of models will depend on their predictive ability, level of protection, and ease of use. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1–16. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Funding

The authors thank the International Zinc Association for funding our research. Gwilym Price was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship through the University of Technology, Sydney. Lucas G. Morais at La Trobe University was supported by funding from Australian Research Council DECRA DE160100628 funding to A. Holland and an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship through La Trobe University. Anthony Evans was also supported by La Trobe University for his Honours year.

History

Publication Date

2023-12-01

Journal

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Volume

42

Issue

12

Pagination

16p. (p.2614-2629)

Publisher

Wiley

ISSN

0730-7268

Rights Statement

© 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.