Alert, but not alarmed: Electoral disinformation and trust during the 2023 Australian voice to parliament referendum

Abstract:

In 2024 experts highlight misinformation and disinformation “amid elections” as the top short‐term global risk. In addressing this pressing concern, electoral authorities are devising strategies to counter electoral disinformation while governments consider changes to public policy and legislation. Drawing on motivated reasoning theory, this study assesses the impact of disinformation and mitigation measures in Australia during the 2023 referendum campaign – to establish a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous Voice to Parliament – and its subsequent impacts on trust in the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). Through a nationally representative survey experiment (N = 3825) we find overall high public trust in the AEC with disinformation having a small, but detectable effect. This study finds a level of “moral panic” regarding disinformation's threat to electoral integrity, at least in the Australian setting. However, concerningly, we also find existing AEC communication and refutation strategies have limited impact on countering distrust arising after a disinformation attack, suggesting a need for other strategies. Nonetheless, the study underscores the resilience of Australian electoral processes against disinformation threats serving as a caution against excessive legislative reaction to this global problem. Our study contributes to understanding the complex interplay between information, trust, and public policy responses to disinformation challenges.